On the 25th of January, 2011, the uprising spread throughout Egypt. Due to the strong pressure from national demonstrations and international pressure, Hosni Mubarak was forced to resign from Egyptian President and handed power over with more than 80 million people to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) on November 2nd, 2011 after 30 years of governing (1981-2011),
This event became historic to the country of Pyramid, namely the “January 25th Revolution” and was regarded as one of the most important events at the beginning of 21st century. Earlier, in an interview with ABC (US) on February 3rd, 2011, Hosni Mubarak accused the movement of “Muslim brotherhood” of being the perpetrator of provoking violence at At-Tahrir square and stated: “If I resign, “Muslim brotherhood” will take over the Egyptian government”(1).Hosni Mubarak’s warnings were not considered properly by the US and European countries at that time. They even assumed that this disgraced President was trying in vain to pose a threat so that he could receive support from the US. President Barack Obama affirmed: “The Movement of ‘Muslim brotherhood’ is well organized and one part of its ideology tends to oppose the US, but it is not supported widely. In Egypt, there are sufficient people who lead worldly lifestyle, therefore being aware of civil values of society. They desire to participate in the business of passing resolutions ” (2).
As a result, the US switched from supporting Hosni Mubarak during last 30 years and spending billions of dollars annually to prevent Egypt from being interfered with radical Islamism to opposing to this figure. This surprised the majority of people at that time. Some researchers also shared the same attitude toward the Revolution in Egypt in 2011 with President Barack Obama. For example, Vitaly Naumkin, Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of Russian Academy of Science, wrote “In Egypt, the movement of “Muslim Brotherhood”, regarded as one of the most well-organized movements, have participated in this revolution. However, it is impossible to conclude that Muslims play the key role in the revolution from the slogans of the public as well as the participants of this movement. Therefore, discussing about the risks involved in Islamism is absolutely useless” (3).
With regard to the movement of “Muslim brotherhood” (Al-ikhwan al-muslimun) this political organization of radical Islamist was established in 1928 and operated not only in Egypt but also in other Arabian countries. In 1954, this organization was forbidden to operate, therefore turning into a clandestine one. Later, the activities of the movement of “Muslim Brotherhood” became semipublic again under the condition where Egypt was in the state of emergency since 1981. Leaders of this movement were obviously aware that “Muslim brotherhood” with the slogan “Islamism – a resolution” was not the sole participant of the “January 25th Revolution” in Egypt and they must face not only the people supporting Hosni Mubarak but also the “Revolution” itself whose motivations, slogans and purposes are not absolutely religious characters. They understood that Egypt was undergoing an extremely harsh time as despite Hosni Mubarak’s resignation, all the complex matters could not be solved immediately. This resulted in social explosion which turned into a ‘revolution’ in this country. Consequently, the strategies of “Muslim Brotherhood” in the beginning of “revolution” are getting involved in politics without holding pioneering positions, taking part in the National Assembly election after Hosni Mubarak’s resignation and if they had chance to join the transitional government in Egypt. They temporarily do not assign candidates to run for the Presidency right after Hosni Mubarak’s being brought down. This organization’s demands for the new government in Egypt will be announced in the next phase of the Revolution in case the reforms in politics, economics and society the opposition implemented failed to rule the government. This policy of “Muslim Brotherhood” was temporarily called “wait-and-see policy” and it would devalue the political factor of Islamism in the “Color Revolution” in Arabian countries in general and in Egypt in particular, which surprised a large number of people in the next phase of this revolution”(4).
“Wait -and-see policy” of the movement of “Muslim Brotherhood” had its own argument. On one hand, they needed to keep their strength intact in the beginning the “revolution”; on the other hand, they needed time to collect more force after their public operation. In fact, no elections could be implemented after Hosni Mubarak’s overthrow. Egyptian government, as mentioned, was temporarily run by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) led by Marshal Hussein Tantawi.
On December 28th, 2011, Egyptian people saw a new turning-point on the path leading to the democracy, which was expected by a lot of people. The National Assembly elections were conducted, regardless of mass demonstrations organized by the protesters wanting to delay these elections with the fear that CAF would control and undertake the government again. They desired to put an end to the leadership of the military before holding the National Assembly election. Right before the National Assembly election in Egypt, the leader of SCAF, Marshal Hussein Tantawi proclaimed: “We must implement the reforms in politics, economics and society successfully or else the consequences would be extremely bad and we would not let such thing happen” (5).
With the relatively complicated process of election, a new Parliament after Hosni Mubarak was elected with 508 members and controlled by “Muslim Brotherhood” from December 11th, 2011 to March 2012. The result of this National Assemble election did not satisfy the military, freedomism, the left wing force and the Christians. Therefore, unstable politics in Egypt suffered more serious crisis. Deep conflict happened among three political parties: ruling SCAF, movement of radical Islamism which had just won the National Assembly election, and the opposing force, including the freedomism, the left wing force and the Christians.
In such unstable situation, another election for the Presidency was held. More than one year after Hosni Mubarak’s overthrow, more than 50 million of Egyptians took part in the Presidential election on 23th and 24th May 2012. Observers considered it as the first democratic election in the 5 thousand year history in this Pyramid country. There were 13 candidates running for the Presidency, among which Mr. Mohammed Morsi, the candidate from the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) of radical Islamists with key movement of “Muslim Brotherhood” and Mr. Ahmed Shafiq, former Prime Minister of Egypt under Hosni Mubarak’s reign, a candidate from worldly force are the two most potential ones. These two men were elected for the second round. Before the second round, observers assumed that these two men had equal opportunities in the second round. Mr. Yevgeny Satanovsky, President of the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies of Russia, stated “Military maintains the government and more importantly, maintains its property obtained by Mosni Mubarak’s constitutional initiative. Until now, commanders keep 25-30% GDP of Egypt, including factories, hotels, plantations. It is obvious that the property is such a great motivation for military to join. The military is not ready to transfer these properties to Islamites by no means; despite Eastern or Western democracy, they will fight to the end”. However, Ahmed Shafif, the candidate of military side, used to be Hosni Mubarak companion-in-arms, which dissatisfied numerous Egyptians as they feared that the old regime might be restored. For the movement of “Muslim Brotherhood”, together with their alliances they have attempted to control the Egyptian Parliament, the Supreme Legislature is one of the anti-military government of the Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces centre.
In Egyptian complicated political scene, before the second round of the Presidential election, SCAF dismissed the National Assembly and assigned the armed force to block the office of this Supreme Legislature on June 15th, 2012. The dismissing command was issued one day before the second round of the Egyptian Presidential election on 16th and 17th June 2012. SCAF issued the dismissing command basing on the judgment of the Constitutional Court that 1/3 of the number of seats in the Parliament of Egypt were illegally elected, therefore these seats were invalid.
Chairman of the National Assembly, Saad El-Katatny rejected the dismissing command and assumed that the judgment of the Constitutional Court served political purpose. However, SCAF would hold the legislative power and control the national budget until a new Parliament is chosen. According to article 56 of the Constitutional Proclamation, which was released by SCAF, this agency had general power to run the country in the transitional phase. Among 10 rights which SCAF had permission to do, there were the right to assign Prime Minister and Ministers in Egyptian government, the right to assign civil and military officials, legislative powers and the right to make decisions related to the national budget. Military leaders affirmed that they needed to carry out these actions in order to protect the country and to take precautions against violent demonstrations under the control of the “Muslim Brotherhood”. Alexander Cotrichenko, a Russian analyzer of the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies in St. Petersburg city, stated “Muslim Brotherhood and its alliances are controlling the National Assembly in the struggle against military government. Temporarily suspending the National Assembly aimed to prevent the National Assembly from becoming anti government centre before and after the election for Presidency”
The second round of the Presidential election in Egypt after Hosni Mubarak’s time was held as planned and in a complex situation beyond lots of people’s expectation. The scramble for power between two parties: the military force and the Islamism pushed the country to the peak of danger. Both candidates proclaimed that they won the election. The former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq announced victory with 51.5% of the total vote and Mohammed Morsi, the candidate of the movement of “Muslim Brotherhood” also announced victory with 52.5% of the total vote, SCAF intensified the activities to control power, which dissatisfied people in and outside the country. Proclaiming the result of the election was postponed and thousands of people went down the street. There were heavy casualties in that event.
According to the result of the election proclaimed some days later, Mohammed Morsi, a member of the radical Islamism, won the election. In order to calm down the public and demonstrators, SCAF proclaimed to transfer ruling power to the newly-elected President, but the military party still usurped the power. Such actions as: dismissing the National Assembly and releasing Constitution empowering the military force, arresting people to military police, establishing Committee of Defense with key members from military, appointing Committee of Legislature to compile new Constitution... aimed to prepare for restricting the newly-elected President’s power. Until now, the “wait and see policy” of “Muslim Brotherhood” has finished. The new situation made them decide to directly rush into the new struggle for power.
According to regulation, the National Assembly election in Egypt could only be held after the new Constitution is released. Therefore, how fast the process of transferring power would depend on the business of compiling the new Constitution of the Committee of Legislature with 100 members. Although, founded by SCAF, this Committee was controlled by the radical Islamist. A draft of the new Constitution was shortly compiled based on Sharia law of the Islamist, regardless of opposition from the freedomism, the secularism and the Christians.
It is necessary to add that radical Islamists in Egyptian are mainly Salafism, an extreme branch of Islamism. These people, gathering in the movement of “Muslim Brotherhood”, used to be banned in Egypt and many Arabian countries. At the end of July, 2012, right after being elected as President, Mohammed Morsi, a member of Freedom and Justice Party in the movement of “Muslim Brotherhood” granted amnesty to 572 Islamist prisoners belonging to Salafism who were mainly sentenced to death penalty or life imprisonment due to getting involved in terrorism and imprisoned in Egypt.
The Islamists who were loyal to President Mohammed Morsi found every possible ways to pass the newly compiled drafted of the Constitution based on Sharia law quickly. The draft of the new Constitution had 234 articles, among which article No. 2 prescribed: “Islamism is the national religion. Arabic is the national language officially. Principles of Sharia law are the main basis of law”. Article No. 3 prescribed: “Principles of law (origin: Sharia – Shara’i’) of Egyptian – Christian and Judaism – are fundamentals of law (origin: Tashri’at). This law determines their citizen status (their family relationship – NGR), their religious actions and leadership choice”.
It is obvious that these two mentioned articles, compiled by the radical Islamist, show religious discrimination against non-Muslims. The law of the Islamism community became national law of Egyptian society. Egyptian citizens who were Christians and Judaists were forced to abide the law of Islamism community, as prescribed in Article No. 3. Besides, other religious followers and other non-religious people in Egypt were forced to abide Islamism law. Furthermore, people who were loyal to President Mohammed Morsi mainly followed Salafism. What about the people belonging to other sects of Islamism? Are they also forced to abide the law compiled by Salafists? Many people of the opposing party also accused the draft of the new Constitution of constraining woman rights, freedom of speech and following religion. Those were the main reasons for strong demonstrations in Egyptian society in order to protest the draft of the new Constitution compiled by the Salafists.
As mentioned above, Article No. 2 prescribed: “Islamism is the national religion”. However, it is necessary to identify which Islamism mentioned is, as in Egypt, in addition to the minor Salafism, there are several other Islamism sects, among which Sufism is occupied by the majority. The Sufist is considered by the Salafist as “lost Islamist”. After the “January 25th Revolution”, the Salafist sometimes took actions to fight against the Sufist such as destroying Sufist mosque, opposing Ali Juma, the leader of Sufism in Egypt. The Salafist called Ali Juma a “stupid” Sufist in religious problems, a liar, a sinner, because he was a respected person in Sufism but did not accuse Shiism.
In this critical politics situation in Egypt, on December 22nd, 2012, President Mohammed Morsi issued Decree of Constitution, in which defined that the judiciaries did not have right to dismiss the Constitutional Committee or Senate (Shura Committee), to deny, abrogate or modify any articles of law, proclamation or decree issued by the President from the day of inauguration, June 30th, 2012, until the new constitution was approved and the new National Assembly was elected.
Meanwhile, the Constitutional Committee of Egypt, in which the majority were Islamists, tried to achieve their target quickly by compiling the Constitution based on Sharia law of Islamism. Among 100 members of the Constitutional Committee, there were only 30 members belonging to the opposing party. When these people boycotted the approval of the draft of the new Constitution, the Islamists immediately seized this opportunity to pass the controversial draft of the new Constitution. The Constitutional Committee was urgently summoned and 234 articles of the draft of the new Constitution were passed by 85/100 members of the Constitutional Committee within some hours at night of 29th and dawn of 30th, 2012. Mr. Amr Moussa, former Secretary of the Arab Union, a candidate for Egyptian President, considered the approval of the draft of the new Constitution as a “disaster”.
Those above events seem to worsen the situation, making the crisis more serious. From demonstrating to oppose the draft of the new Constitution, the opposing party now demanded President Mohammed Morsi’s resignation and even called him a dictator and desired to end the radical Islamist’s regime. Demonstrations turned into riot and expanded from Cairo capital to other cities, among which there was Alexandria, the second largest city in Egypt. Mohamed El Baradei, former Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency of the United Nation who used to run for the Egyptian Presidential election said: “President and the Constitutional Committee are implementing an overthrow against democracy. The legitimacy of the government is rapidly disappearing”.. The leaders of demonstrations, including the former candidates for President like Mr. Amr Moussa, Hamdeen Sebhi and Mohammed El Baradei called this opposition a “final alert” to Mohammed Horsi in order to withdraw his support to the draft of the new Constitution compiled by Islamist and verified by the Constitutional Committee (10). Under the pressure from the opposing party, President Mohammed Morsi had to withdraw the Decree of Constitution on December 22nd, 2012, but patiently maintained the policy of carrying out referendum for the draft of the new Constitution on 15th and 22nd December, 2012.
After that President Mohammed Morsi proclaimed to carry out a referendum for the draft of the new Constitution approved by the Constitutional Committee, demonstrations increased from both parties – Islamist and opposing forces. It reminded people of the event at the beginning of 2011 in this country and the result was Hosni Mubarak’s resignation after 30 year governing. While the opposing party protested the Draft of the Constitution and the referendum, Islamists supporting the President asked for implementing the so-called “God law”. Conflict broke out causing heavy casualties. Judges of Constitutional Court also struck for protesting President Mohammed Morsi’s proclamation. Regardless of opposition, the draft of the new Constitution was put in referendum as planned. Before the referendum, one of the Salafism’s leaders hoped that the draft of the new Constitution would be agreed by 80% of Egyptians, as the majority in this country are Islamists and in case all non-Muslim people rejected the referendum, it would be accepted by 100% of the participants. In fact, the situation did not happen as the Salafist planned. At the beginning, the opposing party proclaimed to boycott the referendum, but then they decided to take part in this event. According to Egyptian media, in the first round of the referendum on December 15th, 2012, only 6 million out of 26 million of legal voters in 10 cities and provinces took part in the election, while the movement of “Muslim Brotherhood” assumed that there were 1/3 of the voters took part in the election. In the second round of the referendum on December 22nd, 2012 in 17 remaining cities and provinces, the number of voters taking part in the election was only 30% of the total. After two rounds of the election, the movement of “Muslim Brotherhood” proclaimed that the draft of the new Constitution was approved with 64% of people’s agreement, but the opposing party assumed that the referendum had a lot of fraud and rejected the result. The official result was postponed to announce as scheduled. Finally, according to the official announcement of Election Commission of Judiciary in the evening of December 25th, 2012, the draft of the new Constitution was officially passed with the proportion of agreement, disagreement and voters taking part in the referendum is 63.8%, 46.2% and 32.9% respectively.
Happenings in Egyptian political scene attracted international interest and US government expressed its concern. According to Hillary Clinton, Victoria Nuland, spokeswoman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the United States said “US desire to witness the process of building up democratic constitution instead of focusing power on an individual to guarantee law, controlling and counterpoise, simultaneously protect and respect interests of all people in society”.However, “the Egyptian democracy after the revolution is developing in a chaotic political scene due to the lack of a proper legal system”. After the approval of the draft of the new Constitution on December 26th, 2012, US government proposed President Mohammed Morsi to bear the responsibility of promoting national dialogue in order to solve the conflicts among political parties in the country. Spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the United States, Patrick Ventrell said “The future of Egyptian democracy depends on political parties’ reaching the same awareness of new democratic principles. President Mohammed Morsi had a “special” duty to obtain respect and support from all classes in society during the political process”
The essence of the serious political crisis in Egypt is that the new Constitution should identify the nature of government in historic prospect instead of letting the radical Islamists create the Constitution and impose it on the whole Egyptian society.
The “January 25th Revolution” is a national revolution, worldly revolution and against religious power. The initiators and motivation of the revolution were people belonging to freedomism, left wing force, the union and Islamism and Christianity which meant that they all wanted to implement the slogan composed by nationalists in Egypt at the beginning of 20th century: “Religion is for God (Allah), and Nation is for all people”. The main purpose of this revolution is to changing Egypt into a worldly democratic nation where all people have equal rights, not depending on personal attitude toward religion. In the first phase of the “revolution”, Islamist were not pioneers, as analyzed above about the “wait and see policy” of the leaders of “Muslim Brotherhood”, but they used democratic capacity, grabbed political initiatives and took the majority of seats in Egyptian National Assembly, in the Constitutional Committee and assigned candidate for president in cooperation with Salafist.
Although drafted as the government of Islamists and based on Sharia law, Egypt is actually controlled by Islamists. After the victory in the Presidential election after Hosni Mubarak’s time, instead of immediately starting to solve serious socioeconomic problems, President Mohammed Morsi focused on the Egyptian government Islamization (Ikhwanization). He assigned members of “Muslim Brotherhood” or people involved in this movement for key positions in Egyptian Government such as the Minister of the Ministry of Defense, Leader of Egyptian Intelligence Agency, Leader of the Egyptian General Staff, President of Procures, mayors and city leaders... Salafist carried out the Egyptian Islamization by organizing the authority at lower level like in several communes and villages in the countryside and streets in the city in accordance with Sharia law.
The struggle in the Egyptian political scene still took place severely although the draft of the new Constitution was approved and took effect in social life because the result of the referendum for the draft of the new Constitution did not express the harmony in Egyptian society. Furthermore, Egyptian society is continuously split into various political and social trends and if the current constitutional crisis cannot be solved, when the government is ruled by the Salafist, a civil war where “people-fighting-people” will occur and no one will win. According to statistics of newspaper “Al-Sharq al-Awsat”, there are currently more than 15 million units of illegal weapons belonging to Egyptian citizens. The “January 25th Revolution” in Egypt has not ended yet .
Nguyen Van Dung
